![]() ![]() Not how many the stats say you probably should have scored on average. So we have xG in FM21 but what’s the point? You know how many you have scored, that’s what gets you the points and the silverware. The exceptions to this tend to Messi and Ronaldo. But bear in mind it is rare in the real world at least for players to constantly outscore their xG. You can use this to judge and track player performance. In can be presented in the graph below or if bug reports are attended to it will also be available in squad views. Importantly you can get that broken down by how much xG per 90. You can also get a break down by player of how much xG they have produced. You can use this to work out where you have having more success, and if you hover over the chances how/with who. One thing I’d really like to know (and could be the source of any discrepancies we find between xG values in the game and goals scored) is whether the base rates used for how likely a shot is to go in, the xG value, is based on real world data or baseline data from FM21’s engine. Analytic companies make their bread and butter off their honed data models so we’re not likely to get all the details. ![]() Especially as they offer their services to real world clubs. There may well be more but it’s doubtful we will be told all the elements of the xG model SCISPORTS use. From the feature teasers it’s been made clear that this model includes not just position, but angle, defender position or pressure, and keeper position. In this year’s version of xG the model has been put together by SCISPORT. The higher number the more chances, or the better the quality of the chances. Over the course of the match all the values can be totalled give a number of expected goals for the that match. Once you have an idea of how likely certain shots are to go in you can use this baseline to determine the goals a team might expect to score. The most commonly considered factors are the position of the shot and the angle, though some models consider the type of pass leading to the shot and the number of defenders between the attacker and the goal. There are lots of different models of xG that take into account different factors when considering how likely a shot is to result in a goal. 1 value would suggest a 10% chance of goal from that position. This is normally a value between 0 and 1, with 0 obviously being no chance and 1 being a 100% chance, or 0 being no goal expected and 1 being a certain goal. This is a very brief and clumsy explanation but every chance in a match can be given a value representing how likely a shot from that position or situation is to result in a goal. XG or expected goals is basically a measure of chance quality. I’ve explained what xG is a few times so rather than paraphrase myself again, here’s the original: I even made a spreadsheet to calculate your xG based on shot position for FM20. Related Stats: xA and Received Pass PositionĪs mentioned above I’ve been a fan of this since FM19. ![]()
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